Post by Leonardo Serni
Il morbillo in Mongolia non solo colpisce pressoché solo i non vaccinati, ma
ha anche ammazzato 59 bambini.
Sicuro? Nel link che hai dato si legge:
The Ministry of Health and Sports reported 105 fatalities in the first
four months of the year. Out of those 59 are laboratory-confirmed cases
and 46 are clinically confirmed cases. 90 percent of all fatalities are
infants up to 8 months of age. In 2016, a total of 23,888 confirmed and
suspected cases of measles were reported by the Government.
E il 90% di 105 decessi sono 95 casi, non 59. Probabilmente hai
invertito le cifre per errore di battitura.
Per fare un paragone, osserviamo che nei primi 5 mesi del 2017 ci sono
stati in Italia 2.988 casi di morbillo, ma nessun morto sembra riportato:
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)
Italy: Since the beginning of 2017 and as of 11 June, Italy has reported
2 988 cases in 18 of the 21 regions. Among these, 237 are healthcare
workers. The median age is 27 years, 89% of the cases were not
vaccinated and 6% received only one dose of vaccine.
Notare che ben 237 di quei casi di morbillo in Italia si sono avuti fra
gli operatori sanitari. In complesso il morbillo ha colpito fra i non
vaccinati (89% dei casi vs. 11% dei vaccinati che se lo son beccati lo
Invece in Romania ci sono stati 6.743 casi di morbillo con 30 morti:
Romania: Between 1 January 2016 and 9 June 2017, Romania has reported 6
743 cases, including 30 deaths. Cases are either laboratory-confirmed or
have an epidemiological link to a laboratory-confirmed case. Infants and
young children are the most affected group. Forty-one of the 42
districts have reported cases, Timis (west part of the country at the
border with Serbia) is the most affected district with 1 072 cases.
Vaccination activities are ongoing in order to cover communities with
suboptimal vaccination coverage.
La differenza nel numero dei morti dipende certo dalla differente età
media dei colpiti e dalla copertura vaccinale della popolazione, ma
direi che dipende anche da quanto da bestie si vive. Più ti lavi, meglio
mangi e meglio ti curano, e meno crepi. Infatti in Belgio quello stesso
morbillo importato dalla Romania non ha fatto morti:
Belgium: Since 20 December 2016 and as of 8 May 2017, Wallonia has
reported 293 cases, of which 115 were hospitalised. The outbreak affects
all provinces of Wallonia, with the exception of the province of
Luxembourg. No deaths are reported. The index case of the outbreak in
Wallonia travelled to Romania during the incubation period. After a peak
of 40 cases per week in the beginning of March, the epidemic is
gradually decreasing. In Flanders, one isolated imported case was
reported in January and another in March, with possible links to a
cluster in Wallonia. In the Brussels Capital Region, one isolated
imported case was reported in February and two cases were notified in
March without known links to the outbreak in Wallonia. Both imported
cases had a travel history to Romania during the incubation period, and
the national reference centre for measles, mumps and rubella (WIV-ISP)
identified genotype B3 as identified in Romania, Italy and Austria at
the end of 2016.